Psychological Reasoning (Hindsight Bias)

1. Hindsight Bias:  finding that something has happened makes it seem inevitable or common sense. 
   1. Confirmed by over 100 studies in various countries, and in both children and adults (Blank et al., 2007)
2. Need psychological research because common sense more easily describes what HAS happened than what WILL happen.   Research helps us figure out when intuition and common sense are right, and when they are not.

Bias 2:  Overconfidence Effect

1. If absent, get notes on Overconfidence Effect from a classmate.
2. Example of student predictions of behavior (Vallone 1990).  Self predictions erred 15% of the time
3. Need to remain skeptical of our own interpretations and observations

Qualitative Research Intro Lecture 
ABSENT?  See PowerPoint linked on Documents page for lecture outline.  You'll want to fill out your notes with me or a classmate.

HOMEWORK
Review and study lecture notes for a possible pop quiz on Thursday that will cover the lecture from today!

Review Syllabus/DP
Syllabus: Go to Lori’s DP, and find the Syllabus page.  Read closely!  Then explore the rest of Lori’s DP.  Bookmark it!  Read for 5 minutes, then discuss the following questions for 5 minutes:

1. What are you most excited about for Psychology this year?
2. What are you apprehensive/nervous about?  What can I do to help alleviate those fears?
3. What questions do you have?  List them!

Four Corners:  Psychology is not a science. 
Go to a corner.  Talk to others in your corner to confirm position.  Share and debate

What do we study in Psychology?
Big Question: Nature/nurture debate: Controversy over the relative contributions of biology and experience in human thought and behavior.

1. How are we humans alike, and how are we diverse?
2. Are gender differences biologically predisposed or socially constructed?
3. Is children’s grammar mostly innate or formed by experience?
4. How are differences in intelligence and personality influenced by heredity and by environment?
5. Should we treat psychological disorders like depression as disorders of the brain, disorders of thought, or both?

 
Three Main Levels of Analysis

1. Biological
2. Cognitive
3. Sociocultural

 
Key Point:  All levels of analysis are worthwhile, all use their own methods and ask their own questions.  They may each examine the same behavior, but will do it in different ways.  Need all of them to fully address questions!

Psychology Pre-Assessment
Take and correct a quick pre-assessment quick.
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TOMORROW:  We will be looking at some specific biases that sometimes make our common sense nonsense, and jumping into qualitative research methods (it’s sexier than it sounds, I promise).